Weekly outlook: Strategising ahead of Friday's EZ and JP CPI and PCE releases

Monday's trading is expected to be subdued due to the observance of public holidays in the UK and US. This pause in the market activity provides an opportunity for traders to reflect on the previous week's performance and strategize for the upcoming economic data releases on Friday.
 

The Japanese Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be published on Friday. Last month, Tokyo CPI gained 1.8% year-on-year, while the Tokyo Core PCE is anticipated to gain 1.9%, compared to the previous 1.6%. This data is essential as it could influence trading in the USD/JPY pair, which has been one of the easier trades this year.
 

Eurostat will publish the latest Euro area CPI figures on Friday. According to economists, the annual Core PCE is anticipated to increase by 2.7%, unchanged from last month, while the headline figure is expected to show that inflation picked up from 2.4% to 2.5%. ECB officials have indicated that a rate cut in June is almost guaranteed.
 

On Friday, the US will also release important Core PCE figures, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. The Figures are anticipated to show that inflation remains unchanged at 2.8% annually, while the headline figure is expected to remain unchanged at 2.7%.
 

EUR/USD continues to trade outside of a large wedge pattern. If the price trades above 1.0790, it might continue to add to its gains, potentially reaching 1.0896, followed by 1.0940. The wedge pattern suggests the potential to trade as high as 1.1102, but this is contradicted by the overall dovishness of the ECB and the hawkishness of the Federal Reserve.
 

USD/JPY continues to remain in an uptrend. As long as it trades above 153.42, the price could head towards 158.00, followed by 160.20. It's important to note that central bank intervention is likely, which could lead to strong selloffs, as seen in recent weeks.  

Brent Crude Oil (BRENT) prices are trying to bottom out around the $81 mark. However, it's too early to know if bulls or bears will dominate in the weeks ahead, as the trend remains bearish below $84.30. The market might need another one or two weeks to make up its mind.
 

Gold prices (XAUUSD) experienced a strong selloff last week and might have already bottomed out. However, given the lack of a strong trend, I am bullish between $1,298 and $1,265, anticipating a push to the upside from these levels.
 

The Nasdaq 100 (NAS100) continues bullish, fuelled by NVIDIA's stellar report last week. The index remains bullish between 18,677 and 18,402.

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